BTIG analysts have upgraded Edwards Lifesciences (NYSE: EW) to “Buy” with TAVR on the rise and a number of potential growth drivers on the way.
Analysts Marie Thibault, Sam Eiber and Alexandra Pang issued a report highlighting the reasons for the upgrade on the back of Edwards’ second-quarter results released last week. The transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) leader reported 12% year-over-year sales, including TAVR revenues totaling $1.1 billion.
“After years on the sideline, we are upgrading to Buy on the improving stability of Edwards Lifesciences’ TAVR segment, as well as positive U.S. doctor feedback on coming catalysts like the asymptomatic rollout, a possible TAVR NCD update, and the Evoque ramp,” the analysts wrote.
The analysts note steady improvement in Edwards’ business, with expected 6%-7% TAVR growth in 2025. They also believe the second half sets up nicely for TAVR, with potential catalysts like the launch of TAVR for asymptomatic patients and a potential Medicare update that could increase procedure adoption.
A survey of 50 doctors saw more than half say a more permissive national coverage determination (NCD) for TAVR would not impact their case volumes. However, 22 of 50 (44%) expect a meaningful uptick with a new NCD. The analysts expect easier billing processing for current centers with an updated NCD, too.
Edwards has plenty of catalysts on the way
The analysts set out a list of potential catalysts, with a number set for the remaining five months of 2025. That includes the continued rollout of the Pascal and Evoque valves, plus the Sapien M3 launch in Europe.
Edwards continues its ongoing asymptomatic TAVR expansion, while the analysts also expect the company to close its acquisition of JenaValve in the current (third) quarter.
Late 2025 could also include new clinical milestones, such as the ENCIRCLE readout for mitral replacement and the completed one-year follow-up for the CLASP II TR trial for tricuspid repair. The analysts also anticipate FDA approval for JenaValve’s Trilogy valve in late 2025.
Beyond this year, they expect FDA approval for Sapien M3 in the first half of 2026 and a next-generation Pascal system next year, too.
According to the analysts, Edwards continues to maintain a stable U.S. TAVR market share with continued center adoption and stable pricing. They expect incremental asymptomatic adoption to bolster the company’s results, too.
What impact could new TAVR centers have?
The analysts also gave consideration to the potential addition of new TAVR centers and how that would affect U.S. sales.
Management pointed to a potential total of around 1,200 TAVR centers, rising by 350 from the current total of approximately 850. They used 350 as a bull case, 275 for a base case and 200 for a bear case in their calculations.
According to the analysts, using 40 annual procedures as a base and assuming Edwards wins 50% of the TAVR market share as a base, they expect $179 million in peak annual revenue from new TAVR centers. In the bull case, that could rise as high as $375 million.
Given typical NCD timings, the analysts don’t expect a finalized update until mid-2026, with new TAVR centers likely taking another 3-6 months to start programs. Considering that, they assume procedures may not start to ramp until 2027. The analysts expect at least 2-3 years for a center starting a TAVR program to reach peak procedure volume levels.
“There are numerous unknowns at this point, including whether a potential NCD opening up more access to TAVR at additional hospitals will be proposed and finalized,” the analysts wrote. “While hard to predict the pace and timing of these ramps, this scenario analysis underscores that new centers could become a meaningful source of U.S. TAVR growth in the outyears, helping support a MSD-to-HSD growth trajectory.”
