Medical Device Tax: The road to 60 repeal votes

Now that the U.S. Supreme Court has upheld healthcare reform, hopes for a repeal of the medical device tax contained in the law rest with the U.S. Senate and a bill sponsored by Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) to do away with the 2.3% levy.

As the 112th Congress winds to a close and a game-changing election looms on the horizon, MassDevice.com took stock of the 100 upper chamber legislators and how they’re likely to vote on the Hatch bill, S.17, the "Medical Device Access and Innovation Protection Act."

Assuming 100% buy-in from his 47 Republican colleagues (a safe bet in this hyper-partisan era) and Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), who’s ideologically in-line with the GOP on the issue, there are 17 other Dems who could be persuaded to cross the aisle.

With 60 votes needed to over-ride an almost certain veto by President Barack Obama, and assuming that the Grand Old Party can persuade all 17 fence-sitters to join them, the repeal coalition has a shot at mustering 64 votes, just enough to roll back the tax on all U.S. sales of medical devices.

But with other, more pressing matters on the docket (deficit reduction, the debt ceiling and sequestration), it’s unlikely that the Hatch repeal measure will make to the full Senate floor for a vote.

That leaves it to the 113th Congress, meaning that the November election will be make-or-break for repeal proponents – a swing to a Romney presidency and Republican control of the Senate would all but assure the death of the tax.

For the time being, here’s how our math breaks down:

Likely votes for repealing the tax (48):
Mark Begich (D-Alaska)
Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)
Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.)
Richard Shelby (R-Ala.)
John Boozman (R-Ark.)
Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.)
John McCain (R-Ariz.)
Marco Rubio (R- Fla.)
Saxby Chambliss (R- Ga.)
Johnny Isakson (R- Ga.)
Chuck Grassley (R- Iowa)
Mike Crapo (R- Idaho)
James Risch (R- Idaho)
Mark Kirk (R- Ill.)
Daniel Coats (R- Ind.)
Richard Lugar (R- Ind.)
Jerry Moran (R- Kan.)
Pat Roberts (R- Kan.)
Mitch McConnell (R- Ky.)
Rand Paul (R- Ky.)
David Vitter (R- La.)
Scott Brown (R- Mass.)
Susan Collins (R- Maine)
Olympia Snowe (R- Maine)
Roy Blunt (R- Mo.)
Thad Cochran (R- Miss.)
Roger Wicker (R- Miss.)
Richard Burr (R- N.C.)
John Hoeven (R- N.D.)
Mike Johanns (R- Neb.)
Kelly Ayotte (R- N.H.)
Dean Heller (R- Nev.)
Rob Portman (R- Ohio)
Tom Coburn (R- Okla.)
James Inhofe (R- Okla.)
Patrick Toomey (R- Pa.)
Jim DeMint (R- S.C.)
Lindsey Graham (R- S.C.)
John Thune (R- S.D.)
Lamar Alexander (R- Tenn.)
Bob Corker (R- Tenn.)
John Cornyn (R- Texas)
Kay Hutchison (R- Texas)
Orrin Hatch (R- Utah)
Mike Lee (R- Utah)
Ron Johnson (R- Wis.)
John Barrasso (R- Wyo.)
Michael Enzi (R- Wyo.)

Likely votes to retain the tax (35):
Mark Pryor (D- Ark.)
Barbara Boxer (D- Calif.)
Dianne Feinstein (D- Calif.)
Richard Blumenthal (D- Conn.)
Thomas Carper (D- Del.)
Christopher Coons (D- Del.)
Daniel Akaka (D- Hawaii
Daniel Inouye (D- Hawaii
Tom Harkin (D- Iowa)
Richard Durbin (D- Ill.)
Mary Landrieu (D- La.)
Benjamin Cardin (D- Md.)
Barbara Mikulski (D- Md.)
Carl Levin (D- Mich.)
Max Baucus (D- Mont.)
Jon Tester (D- Mont.)
Kay Hagan (D- N.C.)
Kent Conrad (D- N.D.)
Jeanne Shaheen (D- N.H.)
Jeff Bingaman (D- N.M.)
Tom Udall (D- N.M.)
Harry Reid (D- Nev.)
Jeff Merkley (D- Ore.)
Ron Wyden (D- Ore.)
Jack Reed (D- R.I.)
Sheldon Whitehouse (D- R.I.)
Tim Johnson (D- S.D.)
Mark Warner (D- Va.)
Patrick Leahy (D- Vt.)
Bernard Sanders (I- Vt.)
Maria Cantwell (D- Wash.)
Patty Murray (D- Wash.)
Herb Kohl (D- Wis.)
Joe Manchin (D- W.V.)
John Rockefeller (D- W.V.)

On the fence (17):
Michael Bennet (D- Colo.)
Mark Udall (D- Colo.)
Joseph Lieberman (I- Conn.)
Bill Nelson (D- Fla.)
John Kerry (D- Mass.)
Debbie Stabenow (D- Mich.)
Al Franken (D- Minn.)
Amy Klobuchar (D- Minn.)
Claire McCaskill (D- Mo.)
Ben Nelson (D- Neb.)
Frank Lautenberg (D- N.J.)
Robert Menendez (D- N.J.)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D- N.Y.)
Charles Schumer (D- N.Y.)
Sherrod Brown (D- Ohio)
Robert Casey (D- Pa.)
Jim Webb (D- Va.)