While transcatheter aortic valve replacement technologies are on target to becoming a $5 billion market by 2021, analysts believe the path to indications for intermediate risk patients may be slower than previously expected.
The market has showed a “notable step down in projected TAVR volume growth” in a set of surveys from April 2016 to Jan 2017, according to Leerink Partner analyst Danielle Antalffy.
After a discussion with 5 interventional cardiologists, Antalffy wrote in a letter to investors that they still considered TAVR to be “one of the more exciting new MedTech markets that will exceed $5B by 2021,” but with the caveat that the “ramp in intermediate risk may progress at a slower pace” than previously thought.
Antalffy said that in conversations with interventional cardiologists, 4 key themes emerged on TAVR. The first theme, according to the analyst, is that with TAVR on the market for 5 years, the backlog of aortic stenosis patients has been mostly worked through. The 2nd point Antalffy noted was that the intermediate risk pool has “already been at least partially penetrated before the indication expansion.”
Surgeons pushing back on the move down the risk curve and concerns over new centers cannibalizing volume at existing centers made up the 3rd and 4th points, respectively, according to the letter.